Greater Kurdistan: a New Actor on Middle East Map?
*Στην πολιτική πίσω από
μια εκκωφαντική επικαιρότητα υπάρχουν οι υπόγειες διεργασίες.Μια τέτοια
περιγράφει το άρθρο που παρατίθεται
κατωτέρω.Το πώς με συνέπεια και συνέχεια οικοδομείται στον χρόνο και τον
χώρο το Μεγάλο Κουρδιστάν.Κορμός του το
ανεξάρτητο Κράτος του Νοτίου Κουρδιστάν, το οποίο θα πλαισιώνεται από τις
διεθνώς αναγνωρισμένες Ομοσπονδίες του Βορείου,Δυτικού και Ανατολικού
Κουρδιστάν -ειδικά δε η παρουσία του
Βορείου Κουρδιστάν θα πρέπει να θεωρείται ως επιβεβλημένη-.Οι διεργασίες αυτές -
αποτέλεσμα και του αγώνα των Κούρδων-έχουν προκαλέσει το διεθνές ενδιαφέρον ως
προκύπτει από την καταγραφή των διπλωματικών κινήσεων χωρών όπως της Τουρκίας,
των ΗΠΑ,της Αρμενίας, του Καναδά,του
Ιράκ
.Δεν είναι μόνο ότι το Μεγάλο Κουρδιστάν θα
αποτελέσει μια χώρα με περίοπτη θέση στην διεθνή αγορά εξαιτίας του πλούτου που
διαθέτει το υπέδαφος του (πετρέλαιο και φυσικό αέριο) Είναι και το γεγονός ότι
πολλές χώρες επιθυμούν να επιτύχουν σημαντικά ωφελήματα ως διακομιστικοί
σταθμοί-για το Κουρδικό Πετρέλαιο και φυσικό αέριο- πρός τις διεθνείς αγορές,
αλλά να αποτελέσουν και εμπορικούς εταίρους Πρέπει ακόμα να επισημανθεί το
γεγονός οτι οι Κούρδοι δεν διεκδικούν χώρο έξω απο αυτόν που Ιστορικά τους
ανήκει αλλά και δεν διάκεινται εχθρικά προς τους Αραβες και πρός λαούς απο των
οποίων τα καθεστώτα υπέφεραν τα πάνδεινα.Σε στρατιωτικό επίπεδο θα είναι ένα πανίσχυρο
κράτος, διαθέτοντας τις δυνάμεις των Πεσμεργκά οι οποίες και καθημερινά αυξάνουν
την ισχύ που διαθέτουν σε όλα τα επίπεδα αλλά και το PKK το οποίο πλέον αποτελεί
διεθνή στρατό με στρατιωτική παρουσία σε όλη την επικράτεια του
Σημαντικότατος
παράγοντας και η Κουρδική Διασπορά σε Αρμενία,
Γεωργία, Ισραήλ, Αζερμπαϊτζάν, Ρωσία, Λίβανο,Ευρώπη και ΗΠΑ
(το κουρδικό λόμπι αυξάνει την δυναμική του)
.
Ένα τέτοιο κράτος θα αποτελέσει παράγωγο μιας
βελούδινης διαδικασίας και όχι μιας ρήξης βίαιης.Το κράτος αυτό θα βρίσκεται υπο
κηδεμονία φαινομενικά, στην πραγματικότητα ο Κουρδικός εθνικισμός θα αποτελεί
πάντα τον παράγοντα που θα λειτουργεί ως θρυαλλίδα για την ανεξαρτητοποίηση
του.Οι Κούρδοι διαχρονικά έχουν αποτελέσει παρά πολλές φορές θύματα των διεθνών
σχεδιασμών , βασιζόμενοι στην σωστή ανάγνωση της ιστορίας τους πλέον διατηρούν
την ουδετερότητα τους απέναντι σε πανίσχυρα γεωστρατηγικά συμφέροντα χωρίς να τα θέτουν σε κίνδυνο.Οι
προσδοκίες πολλών ότι θα αποτελέσουν εργαλείο και μοχλό πίεσης-ταπεινή μου
άποψη- είναι έωλες, όσο χρησιμοποιηθούν άλλο τόσο θα χρησιμοποιήσουν την οποία
συμμετοχή τους κεφαλαιοποιώντας τα κέρδη τους. Παρά τις διαφορές των
Κούρδων της Συρίας ,του Ιράκ,του Ιράν της Τουρκίας σε πολιτισμικό, πολιτικό,
οικονομικό και θρησκευτικό επίπεδο ,παρά τις πολιτικές και ιδεολογικές διαφορές
τους, λαμβάνοντας υπόψιν και την παρουσία άλλων εθνοτήτων το Μεγάλο Κουρδιστάν
δεν δείχνει ότι δέν θα αποτελέσει ένα κράτος μαριονέταBy:Andrei AKULOV(SCF)
A new non-Arab
important actor may soon appear on the Middle East volatile
On November 12, 2012
Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani and a delegation of senior officials from the
Kurdistan Region concluded a two-day visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran to
promote greater cooperation in economic and trade relations. With the volume of
trade between the Kurdistan Region and Iran estimated to be around $8 billion
this year, both sides agreed to develop relations.
In early April, 2012
Kurdistan’s President Massoud Barzani visited the US to meet top officials,
including President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. Obama encouraged
President Barzani to continue playing a “vital role” in the Iraqi political
process… Barzani informed the US leaders about the current political crisis in
Iraq and Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki’s “disrespect” to the articles of the Erbil
Agreement and the country’s constitution. He warned that if a solution were not
found urgently, there was a threat that the country would head toward
dictatorship. President Barzani also met with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon
Panetta, no details released on the talks. He encouraged American business to invest in Kurdistan and launched the
America-Kurdistan Business Council, which consists of American companies investing and operating in Kurdistan. Being a
guest of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Barzani said in
unambiguously that “if a solution to the increasing centralization of power in
the prime minister’s hands cannot be negotiated, he may ask the Kurdish Region’s
Parliament to consider a referendum to determine the way forward.” The fact that
Obama received him alone and not as part of an Iraqi delegation significantly
boosted Barzani’s stature as a Kurdish national leader.
Long before that, in January 2012 he made no bones about it
in an interview with the BBC stating: “I like the Kurdistan Region to evolve day
by day. But what I really wish is to see an independent
Kurdistan”.Economic prospects
Kurdistan regional
government (KRG) controls parts of Iraqi Kurdistan estimated to contain around
45 billion barrels of oil, making it the sixth largest reserve in the world.
The prospects in Kurdistan have caught the attention of major oil traders, who
are now prepared to risk Baghdad’s anger to gain a foothold in Kurdistan while
the region heads towards greater autonomy. US ExxonMobil has made public its
intention to sell off the Iraq’s West Qurna 1 oil field stake for the benefit of going to Kurdistan, where it had
signed more lucrative oil deals. Chevron and Total oil majors have done the
same. The move will exacerbate tensions between Baghdad and autonomous
Kurdistan. Kurdish officials say they have a constitutional right to do so, but
the central government dismisses the oil transactions as illegal. There is
nothing to be surprised about because 60% of Iraqi oil is produced in Kurdistan.
In October Kurdistan’s oil has begun to reach international markets in
independent export deals that further challenge Baghdad’s claim to full control
over Iraqi oil. The Kurds pay little attention to the Iraqi government protests,
the real problem is infrastructure. In October trucks were used to transport
oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan because the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline is
unreliable often hit by explosions. So far, Kurdistan’s export volumes are tiny
in comparison to its daily exports via national pipelines, moving around 1,000
tons of oil per day (about 8,000 bpd) to Turkey by truck, but deliveries are on
the rise. According to Kurdish industry sources condensate volumes were expected
to reach 1,500 tons per day (about 12,000 bpd) soon and more trucks would be
made available towards the end of the year.
Military and political
prospects
After the US
invasion in 2003 Masoud Barzani took advantage of America’s support and refused
to sign the Iraqi new constitution if the broad autonomy special status was not
included. He managed to achieve his goal. The disagreement with Baghdad
followed, especially related to the oil rich province of Kirkuk. Barzani warned
he would struggle for independence in case no accord is reached. A clash bodes
serious bloodshed; the Peshmerga’s strength is estimated to be around 200
thousand, a force to reckon with. So far all efforts by Iraqi Prime Minister
Nouri Al-Maliki to bring the Kurds under strict central government control have
failed.
There are 5.3 million Kurds in Iraq, about one sixth of the population of over 30 million, the majority living in Iran, Syria and Turkey with significant Kurdish diasporas communities in Armenia, Georgia, Israel, Azerbaijan, Russia, Lebanon and, in recent decades, some European countries and the USA. The situation in Iraq is quite different from what takes place in Iran, Syria and Turkey. For Instance Iran simply doesn’t recognize the very existence of Kurds as a minority, something aptly played on by the US and Israel.
There are 5.3 million Kurds in Iraq, about one sixth of the population of over 30 million, the majority living in Iran, Syria and Turkey with significant Kurdish diasporas communities in Armenia, Georgia, Israel, Azerbaijan, Russia, Lebanon and, in recent decades, some European countries and the USA. The situation in Iraq is quite different from what takes place in Iran, Syria and Turkey. For Instance Iran simply doesn’t recognize the very existence of Kurds as a minority, something aptly played on by the US and Israel.
Formed in 2004, the
Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK), an Israel-supported Kurdish guerrilla
group, wages armed struggle against Iran. The group had been carrying out
attacks in the Iranian Kurdish Province and other Kurdish-inhabited areas, and
is closely affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party operating against
Turkey. There were large-scale clashes with Iranian armed forces
In 2011 expected to reignite at any moment. Pursued by Iranian troops some armed formations crossed the Iraqi border with border tensions to follow. Like in the case of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey, PJAK leaders say their long-term goals are to establish an autonomous Kurdish region within the Iranian state replacing Iran’s theocracy with a democratic and federal government, where self-rule is granted to all ethnic minorities of Iran, including Sunni, Arabs, Azeris and Kurds. The PJRK certainly doesn’t represent the majority of Iranian Kurds, at least not at present. But it’s a force to count with and it has destructive potential.
In 2011 expected to reignite at any moment. Pursued by Iranian troops some armed formations crossed the Iraqi border with border tensions to follow. Like in the case of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey, PJAK leaders say their long-term goals are to establish an autonomous Kurdish region within the Iranian state replacing Iran’s theocracy with a democratic and federal government, where self-rule is granted to all ethnic minorities of Iran, including Sunni, Arabs, Azeris and Kurds. The PJRK certainly doesn’t represent the majority of Iranian Kurds, at least not at present. But it’s a force to count with and it has destructive potential.
In Syria President
Assad granted the Kurds citizenship and certain rights they hadn’t had before.
The troops left the area where the Kurds live granting them a right to defend
it. That’s exactly what they’re doing fighting back the anti-government Syrian
opposition forces in the vicinity of Turkish border, something that evokes anger
in Ankara. Turkey is waging an unrelenting fight against the PKK which is
declared to be a terrorist, out of law organization there. The Turkish Kurds
have no autonomy and have to fight for their rights. The Turkish tough stance
against Syria has its ramifications. On July 30, 2012 Hurriyet published an
article called ANALYSIS – Kurdish Nationalism on the Rise, by Semih Idiz devoted
to the Kurdish issue in present day Turkey. It reads, “Prime Minister Erdoğan
cannot have it both ways. Referring to Sunni Arabs who have risen against the
al-Assad regime as “freedom fighters who are combating state terror,” but then
turning and calling the equally oppressed Kurds who are making political headway
now in the confusion that reigns in Syria “terrorists” is hypocritical.” The
author adds as a wrap up, “”What makes it even worse is that Turkey will most
likely be unable to do anything to prevent the emergence of an autonomous or
independent Kurdish region in Syria, if developments in that country provide the
Kurds with another historic opportunity, to complement the one they gained in
Iraq.
“
The question of Kurdish independence has always troubled the surrounding countries: none of them have ever wanted a Kurdish state. With war going on in Syria, tensions between the Kurdish minority may become a major geopolitical threat. As already mentioned Assad has transferred troops away from the Kurdish provinces. One should give the devil his due – so far Syria is the only state with significant Kurds population to achieve success while tackling the Kurds minority problem. If President Assad falls, Syria will splinter into religiously or ethnically homogenous mini-states, one of which will almost certainly be under Kurdish control. Coupled with the recent emergence of a relatively independent Kurdish region in Iraq, this would create something of a league of semi-autonomous Kurdish states between the northeast regions of Syria and Iraq. This combustible state of affairs alarms Turkey, which has waged a bloody, three-decade civil war against its 14 million Kurds. Although it has supported regime change in Syria, the Turkish government has fear of a greater Kurdistan, and can be expected to strenuously resist any attempt at Kurdish unification. Should that powder keg ignite, Turkey could very well drag NATO into a cross-border shooting war with Syria.
US connection“
The question of Kurdish independence has always troubled the surrounding countries: none of them have ever wanted a Kurdish state. With war going on in Syria, tensions between the Kurdish minority may become a major geopolitical threat. As already mentioned Assad has transferred troops away from the Kurdish provinces. One should give the devil his due – so far Syria is the only state with significant Kurds population to achieve success while tackling the Kurds minority problem. If President Assad falls, Syria will splinter into religiously or ethnically homogenous mini-states, one of which will almost certainly be under Kurdish control. Coupled with the recent emergence of a relatively independent Kurdish region in Iraq, this would create something of a league of semi-autonomous Kurdish states between the northeast regions of Syria and Iraq. This combustible state of affairs alarms Turkey, which has waged a bloody, three-decade civil war against its 14 million Kurds. Although it has supported regime change in Syria, the Turkish government has fear of a greater Kurdistan, and can be expected to strenuously resist any attempt at Kurdish unification. Should that powder keg ignite, Turkey could very well drag NATO into a cross-border shooting war with Syria.
The US – Kurds come
and go game has its own story. During the Richard Nixon’s tenure Iraq became
friendly with the Soviet Union. The US began to fund and encourage the Kurds to
fight for their independence against Saddam Hussein as part of a strategy to
weaken the Iraqi regime and general policy aimed at containing the USSR. But
just as the Kurdish independence movement was near to success it became clear
that the stance was part of a political ploy, the United States didn’t really
want independent Kurdistan, so the support was withdrawn. The story of US
betraying the Kurds is described in the famous book by Stephen Hunter called The
Second Salladin released in 1998. That’s a history lesson that should be
remembered by Kurdish leaders dealing with the US.
The Turkish
parliament’s refusal to join the U.S.- led coalition created to invade Iraq gave
Iraqi Kurdistan a strategic boost. Rather than transit Turkey, U.S. forces
parachuted into the Harir airfield, north of Erbil. The peshmerga participation
cemented an enhanced relationship. Also enhancing Kurdish influence in
Washington has been the KRG’s hiring of former U.S. military and political
officials to represent them. The Kurdish participation alongside U.S. troops led
the Iraqi Kurdish leadership to express a sense of entitlement. The withdrawal
of US forces from Iraq and the new political tensions along sectarian lines have
also raised questions over whether Iraq would split apart. Some experts believe
that the US will only support an independent Kurdish state if Baghdad becomes
hostile toward US interests in the region. The would support the Kurds if its
relations with the Iraqi government worsened. If so, it would need the support
of the Kurds as leverage against it.
In June 2006 the new
Middle East map (1) prepared by retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Ralph Peters
was published in the June 2006 edition of Armed Forces Journal under the title
of Blood Borders: How a better Middle East Would Look. The map was a key element
in Mr. Peters’ book Never Quit the Fight, which was released the same year.
Although the map does not officially reflect Pentagon doctrine, it has been used
in a training program at NATO educational centers like Defense College in Rome.
Among other things it reduced Turkish landmass and featured a “Free Kurdistan”
that included additional territory taken from Syria and Iraq. Indeed, Iraq was
presented as just a fragment of what it is now, carved up to also include Sunnis
Iraq and the Arab Shia State. The term New Middle East was introduced to the
world in June 2006 in Tel Aviv by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in
replacement of the Greater Middle East remaining much the same in substance.
This project consists in creating an arc of instability, chaos, and violence
extending from Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria to Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Iran,
and the borders of NATO-garrisoned Afghanistan. The Middle East, Afghanistan,
and Pakistan appear to be stepping stones for extending U.S. influence into the
former Soviet Union and the ex-Soviet Republics of Central Asia, the region
termed as Russian “Near Abroad.”
Israeli
connection
Over the years,
Israel has provided training, military hardware, and intelligence to Kurds in
Northern Iraq, and since the 2003 Iraq war, relations between Israel and Iraqi
Kurds have continued to grow, as both sides see that mutual cooperation to serve
their best national interest. It is important to note that Israelis have
generally demonstrated sympathy toward Iraqi Kurds, and historically there was
hardly any enmity between the two sides. By and large, both Israel and the Kurds
have at one point or another faced common hostility from Arab states. At
present the Israeli army has stepped up its military activities in Iraq’s
autonomous Kurdistan Region. In August 2011 Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles
were stationed in Iraqi to operate against Iran (2). Barzani gave Israel the
green light to deploy them in northern Iraq without gaining the approval of the
Iraqi central government in Baghdad, which has no diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv.
Israeli intelligence agents and military advisers, equipped with special
transmission devices, were reported to be sent to Mosul to train Kurdish
security forces. President Barzani has reportedly agreed to the concession in
return for the admission of a number of Iraqi Kurd students to Israeli
universities. On March 25 the Sunday Times published the article called Israel
Spies Scour Iran in Nuclear Hunt (3). As the story goes Israel is using a
permanent base in Iraqi Kurdistan to launch cross-border intelligence missions
in an attempt to find “smoking gun” evidence that Iran is building a nuclear
warhead. According to Western intelligence sources, the Israelis have been
conducting such operations for several years. These risky intelligence missions
have been intensified to an unprecedented degree in the past few months. On
January 9, 2012 in an the article called L’Iran défie L’Amérique (Iran
challenges America) French Le Figaro ran a story of Israeli intelligence agency
Mossad intensifying its activities against Iran from Iraqi Kurdistan (4).
Former Kurdish leader Mustafa Barzani, Masoud Barzani’s father, was considered a
friend to Israeli military and defense officials.
Conclusion
Kurdistan has all
the trappings of a state: independent institutions such as the presidency, the
parliament, the constitution and the armed forces (the Peshmerga – hundreds of
thousands of seasoned troops) the flourishing economy and the diplomatic
ventures. Real borders exist between the Kurdish and Arab parts of the Iraqi
state. It also has the flag, the anthem, the language and a strong desire to
create Greater Kurdistan independent from Arabs, Persians and Turks. But for
that to happen Greater Kurdistan would also have to be a great unifier sharing
power inside Iraqi Kurdistan and managing conflicting Kurdish aspirations in
Syria, Iran and Turkey. This requires adroit diplomacy and long-term vision. The
process of unification is a bumpy road. As mentioned above, the situation of
Kurds in Turkey is different from that of Kurds in Iran which is different from
that of Kurds in Iraq or Syria. There are also Turks, Arabs, and Assyrians to
name but a few of the multitude of peoples in the region. There are also
different religions: Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Zoroastrianism, and Yazdani.
Unification means getting together different groups with different backgrounds,
cultures and visions. Besides the process has two options. A new secular,
democratic non-Arab nation may appear to change the volatile Middle East
picture. The other outcome is the emergence of a puppet on a string dancing to
the tune of the USA, Israel and the West in general, an element the allies Great
Game remix. Not all Kurds are adamant in their desire for cessation, there are
those who find the very idea of cessation and partition of Iraq is a
multifaceted problem with iffy gains.
References:1. The map published by Armed Forces Journal June 2006 edition as an illustration for the article How a better Middle East Would Look by Ralph Peters: http://www.oilempire.us/new-map.html
2. Israel Deploys Drones In Iraq. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bkVQh5CnRI
3. The Sunday Times. March 25, 2012, Israel Spies Scour Iran in Nuclear Hunt: http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/public/sitesearch.do?querystring=”Israeli+spies+scour+Iran+in+nuclear+hunt”§ionId=7
4. Le Figaro, January 9, 2012, L’Iran défie L’Amérique: http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2012/01/09/01003-20120109ARTFIG00640-l-iran-defie-l-amerique.php.
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