Axis victory by 1943 at the latest.
A
Japanese ‘Strike North’ into the USSR was considered, but historically
they chose to go South, which led them into war with the United States,
and the European Allies. If on 22nd June 1941 the Japanese invaded the
Soviet Union instead, I believe our history would be very different.
The
Japanese and Soviets met in battle at Khalkhin Gol in 1939, but it was
not the Japanese disaster or Soviet triumph that many believe it to have
been - The Soviets had twice the number of troops and 5 times the
number of tanks compared to the IJA, yet suffered a lot more casualties.
There is no doubt it was a Japanese defeat, but I think the IJA learned
a lot from the battle, and would have been significantly better
prepared in 1941.