What would happen if Japan invaded the Soviet Union along with Nazi Germany at the very same time and day?

Axis victory by 1943 at the latest.

A Japanese ‘Strike North’ into the USSR was considered, but historically they chose to go South, which led them into war with the United States, and the European Allies. If on 22nd June 1941 the Japanese invaded the Soviet Union instead, I believe our history would be very different.

The Japanese and Soviets met in battle at Khalkhin Gol in 1939, but it was not the Japanese disaster or Soviet triumph that many believe it to have been - The Soviets had twice the number of troops and 5 times the number of tanks compared to the IJA, yet suffered a lot more casualties. There is no doubt it was a Japanese defeat, but I think the IJA learned a lot from the battle, and would have been significantly better prepared in 1941.

Considering Japans supply problems, let us assume that IJA simply sit defensively on the border of Manchukuo, and only occupy Vladivostok (they captured Singapore in 42, so this was possible). Meanwhile the IJN simply blockade all the other Soviet Eastern ports, and disrupt the Americans Soviet Arctic lend-lease convoys.

In the historical timeline, the Germans were stopped on the outskirts of Moscow by 30 Divisions, 1000 tanks, and 1000 aircraft freed from the Far East to defend against the Japanese threat there.

Without these there were only 90,000 troops to defend Moscow in mid-October 41, and it is highly likely the city would be captured. There would be no troops available to re-take Tikhvin, and so Leningrad would remain dangerously isolated. Even if Moscow survived 1941, the Soviets would not have had the troops for a winter offensive, would not have the strength to push the Germans back, and German troop and equipment losses would be far less.

If the Japanese were already involved in the war against the Soviets, they would not have attacked Pearl Harbour, and so not given America a good reason to enter the war. Lend-lease would still go-ahead, but in lesser quantities, and only across the Atlantic. By 1942 the lack of food, weapons, vehicles, raw materials and equipment would begin to tell with so much less available to Stalin.

At worst, the Germans would probably have begun 1942 in control of Tikhvin, and much closer to Moscow, with more men and material available than they had historically. The Soviets would be in a much worse position to defend against the German summer attacks due to far less lend-lease shipments, and the IJA holding down large numbers of troops in the East.

So, even if the Germans simply consolidated their positions in front of Moscow in 1942, the offensives in the north and south had far greater chances of success.

Tikhvin and it’s railways shifted the balance in favour of the Germans in the North, and it is likely Operation Nordlicht would have successfully captured, or at least isolated Leningrad. In the South, historically, the Germans came incredibly close to capturing Stalingrad and Grozny, so facing a weaker Red Army now these objectives, at least, would have been accomplished.

By mid 1942 Stalin is receiving virtually no lend-lease supplies, with only a trickle making it through to Arkhangelsk. Leningrad is isolated and starving, freeing a large number of troops from Army Group North. Stalingrad is destroyed or occupied, cutting off all supplies along the Volga, and the oilfields at Baku have also been destroyed by the Luftfwaffe. The Japanese control Vladivostok, are tying down large numbers of Soviet troops, are continually bombing the trans-siberian railway, and are causing severe attrition damage. The Axis have air-superiority everywhere.

The Soviets are successfully forming new divisions, but without lend-lease, Caucusus oil, transport or air cover, they are not a threat. The Germans spend the rest of 42 consolidating their positions, and preparing for the attack on Moscow.

In 1943 the Germans attack. It is a bloody battle, but under supplied and with no air cover, Moscow is surrounded in May. Stalin sues for peace. The Germans occupy their Astrakan-Arkangelsk line, while the Japanese occupy Eastern Siberia.

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· Answer requested by Mikey Lejan

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