The War between Wars

10:09 μ.μ.  Geopolitics & Daily News  No comments

In the past year, the IDF has started to use a new term: the war between wars. The way that things seemed here in the last weekend, the attack in Syria that occurred on Tuesday evening according to foreign sources fits the term, but it has the potential to escalate into a much more significant conflict.

The last bomb has yet to be dropped, and it's impossible to detach what happened from the broad regional association, which reaches all the way to Iran.

The Cabinet Convenes

Hours after the Israel elections came to an end, Binyamin Netanyahu's political-security cabinet gathered for a dramatic discussion. The cabinet is a body lacking any formal authority, but is one that is considered to be the most prominent decision-making forum in Israel. The cabinet of the outgoing government was one of the best in recent decades - it had checks and balances, and it usually held very relevant and discreet meetings. Along side Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak, who in the past few years were considered as the ones pushing for an attack in Iran, were ministers Benny Begin and Dan Meridor, who firmly opposed the notion.
Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs, Moshe Ya’alon, supported an attack and also opposed it (according to chancing circumstances), and former head of Shabak Avi Dichter also represented a powerful reinforcement for the group. Other deputy prime ministers, Silvan Shalom and Eli Yishai, also have considerable experience of their own in making fateful defensive decisions.

Netanyahu’s transit government is functioning as any other government. Whatever happened or didn’t happen in Syria is attributed since Wednesday to foreign media, and therefore it is only possible to refer to the following facts: after Wednesday, the cabinet ministers gathered in several more times. The head of Israel’s National-Security Bureau, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Ya'akov Amidror, left for Moscow, while the head of the IDF’s Directorate of Military Intelligence, Maj. Gen. Kochavi met his colleagues in the US (the reports that Israel delivered an early announcement regarding an attack are much more probable).

Minister Shalon was on Israeli radio on Sunday to speak about the cabinet meeting that took place last Wednesday. A “leak” such as this is a standard means of signaling to the other side that ‘we know you are planning to move strategic weapons from Syria to Lebanon’. Sometimes such messages are sufficient, and the message is understood without the need to use military force. However, this is not always the case.

Iran apparently ‘sensed’ something, and issued an unusual message on Saturday, that Iran would view any attack on Syrian soil as though it were a direct attack against it. In the days prior to the attack, there were reports of two Iron Dome missiles that were deployed in the Israeli north (one near Haifa, the other in the area of the city Zephath). NATO also deployed Patriot missile batteries in Turkey, intended to intercept missiles – an old request on Turkey’s part. It is unclear if there is a link between this deployment and the timing of the attack in Syria, as is indicated by foreign media reports.

The Lights are Turned at the Kiriya

The events of the past few days didn’t come out of nowhere. It has been possible to see the lights turned on late at night in the Kiriya base in Tel Aviv for a long time now. 2013 is not an ordinary defense year - the IDF considers it to be a “decisive year” with regards to Iran, even if there is no certainty that things will be determined. All of the fronts are sensitive and volatile, and the dramatic events of the Syrian civil war have kept the people at the Kiriya base up at night, just as in the IDF's Northern Command.

The main question is what is the target that was attacked, and it is quite possible that there is truth to the Syrian claim that it was the “research center” in the Damascus region, rather than a weapon’s convoy. It is quite possible that all the details concerning the attacked target have yet to be revealed (such as if the “research center” reported by Syria is connected to the Iranian nuclear project – not all of Syria’s nuclear capabilities were destroyed in the attack of the reactor in Dayr az-Zawr in September 2007).

One thing can be determined with certainty: throughout the recent period, there was genuine concern in Israel from Hassan Nasrallah’s intention of getting his hands on a formidable weapons arsenal, and technology usually reserved for military powers, certainly not a guerrilla organization with no state responsibility. Nasrallah’s intent to acquire weapons to damage Israel’s strategic superiority did not come into existence yesterday. In fact, it began a day after the Second Lebanon War came to a conclusion in August 2006. Nasrallah wanted to challenge Israel’s military superiority with weaponry that could seriously harm the IDF and the Israeli homefront. Syria also pursued this desire on its part after the attack on the Syrian reactor in Dayr az-Zawr. A short time after the attack, it began discussions with Russia for acquiring antiaircraft missile systems, including SA-17 missiles, which the IDF views as a very serious challenge.