Short answer:
No way to know. But if we project some trends in Russia’s past history, Istanbul as our imperial city had a strong chance to become the “second capital” of the Russian civilization
.Longer answer:
Istanbul/Constantinople is the seat of the Ecumenical Patriarch who has a kind of seniority over other Orthodox churches around the world. Also, it was the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire that together with the Ottoman Empire was a role model for our rulers before Peter the Great.
But that’s not the main reason why the place was so coveted by our Czars and General Secretaries. It’s its location at the heart of the eastern Mediterranean as a strategic fortress. This was also supported by the persistent southward vector in the expansion of the Russian civilization.
Fertile prairies
Despite starting out as forest dwellers some 1,000 years ago, we never really enjoyed living in the thick of the endless, thick, mosquito- and tick-infested Eurasian woods. The soils in our heartland are poor, and could barely support the pre-modern farming.
We long tried to break out to the wide prairies in the south. But the cattle-rearing nomads there chased us back into the woods, century after century. The most fearsome among them were the Crimean Tatars who kept harassing us until the Imperial era.
Dream fortress
When Catherine the Great finally secured the Cumanic prairies for our farmers, another challenge came up. The Ottomans controlled the maritime routes for our agricultural exports from the south, the Straits.
That’s how the Greek Project came up from nowhere. The battle cry of internationalist duty fired up our rulers. We needed to free our brothers Greeks and Balkan Slavs from the yoke of their Muslim infidels! Put the Christian Cross back of top of the Hagia Sophia!
If we had pulled this off, we would be perfectly placed to wield a lot of punch between the Holy land in the south and the Peloponnese in the north. Greece would become our cozy neighbor and BFF, the way Ukraine was before 2014.
Beta version of St Petersburg
The southward vector of our expansion found its little-known outlet in Peter the Great’s attempt to establish his new capital in at the shores of the Azov Sea. He already established a port down there, but bad luck with his military projects elsewhere forced him to pull the plug on it.
After that, he redirected his imperial ambitions to the Baltics. The hapless Swedes had to pay dearly for our misadventures in the eastern Mediterranean. Under other circumstances, we all would have known a totally different St Petersburg—the southern one. Sooner or later, it had a good chance of finding a twin capital in Constantinople. Moscow would have remained a quaint old place to show the tourists, like the Japanese show Kyoto and the Spaniards the old Moorish cities.
Odessa on steroids
Conquering Istanbul/Constantinople would effectively make the Black Sea our internal sea. The city itself with its dream location, large population and wild ethnic mix would make it “Odessa on steroids”.
Odessa was our first major city in the eastern Mediterranean, and it saw an explosive growth until the Communists wreaked havoc on our country. The city became legendary for its showmen, authors, colorful hucksters, urban folklore and the untamed spirit of the Mediterranean Joie de vivre
rather rare in our neck of the woods.
(More cool info about the place of Odessa in the Russian civilization.)
Sunny climes
An absolute majority of people in Russia live a landlocked life with snow, ice and cold drizzle most of the year. Warm surf and sunshine for weeks on end is something we associate with vacation bliss somewhere in Thailand, Egypt or Turkey.
No wonder that the depopulation scourging nowadays our provinces, doesn’t affect the areas close to the Black Sea. On the contrary, this is a very sought-after destination for migration from the rest of the country. Even President Putin caught the bug. He gentrified the seaside area around Sochi and made it Russia’s “winter capital”. Think if he had access to Istanbul—what kind of an epic upgrade he could give to it under the motto: “Constantinople welcomes you to the 2014 Olympic Games in Russia!”
Additional reading
- What was the "Greek Project"?
- What do Russians think about the Crimean Tatars?
- Which country would be the hardest for Russia to invade?
- How many years did it take Russia to drive the Ottoman Turks out of what is now Russia and Ukraine?
- Why does Russia expand west and not south?
- Why was Russia interested in the Balkans?
Below, a medal from the late 18th century with the image of Hagia Sophia with the Orthodox Cross on the top:
Below, the Ascension Cathedral of Sophia
commissioned by Catherine the Great to visually remind the nation Constantinople was rightfully ours
Below, several scenes of the half-mythical Rus duke Oleg/Helge/Olgerd who was the first to claim Constantinople as our object of interest. According to a tale referenced in our chronicles, he nailed his shield to the gates of Constantinople/Miklagarðr/Царьград
. Oddly, the Greeks had no recollection of this in their chronicles. If we use President Putin’s favorite words, they seem to have committed “a revision of history”.
Below, the troops of Mehmed the Conqueror
are entering the city of Constantinople. That red flag they are carrying should have been ours—the one with the glorious proletarian pentagram:
Below, an Orthodox Christian tries to imagine a parallel universe where Constantinople still carries a cross atop Hagia Sophia. If the Czars or Stalin had managed to capture it, the city would have a fair chance of becoming “Russia’s southern capital”.
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