by Barry Rubin
“So fragile was the structure of their reality that a single unsubsumed consciousness, a solitary ripple in their little pond was enough to roil the waters into a frothing, burbling foam.”—Norman Spinrad, The Void Captain’s Tale (1985)
“So fragile was the structure of their reality that a single unsubsumed consciousness, a solitary ripple in their little pond was enough to roil the waters into a frothing, burbling foam.”—Norman Spinrad, The Void Captain’s Tale (1985)
Consider
five factors that had no effect on the very warm reception given by
President Barack Obama to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan:
This
is not some routine matter. With previous presidents, if an ally was
going to do something like that he would say nothing at the time, and
then months later would subvert U.S. policy. Or better yet, the foreign
leader would not do so. To announce defiance in such a way is a serious
sign of how little respect Middle East leaders have for Obama — and for
U.S. policy nowadays — and how little Obama will do about it.
– Equally bad: Erdogan directly promised Obama that he would conciliate with Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cooperated, because Obama asked him to do so. That’s what U.S. allies do. But immediately Erdogan showed he would pay no attention to the agreement he made.
His
negotiators subverted it in several ways, including with demands for
ridiculously large amounts of money, the delay in the promised return of
the Turkish ambassador to Israel, and the continuation of legal action
against Israeli officials involved in the Mavi Marmara affair, when
Israeli soldiers were attacked by Turkish terrorists demanding to sail
to Gaza to deliver equipment to Hamas.
So
a second time, Erdogan betrayed Obama and make the president look
foolish (that is, had anyone in the mass media pointed it out). Again,
there was no U.S. criticism of the move or apparent pressure to make
Erdogan keep his promise.
Three
other ways that Erdogan has subverted U.S. interests with minimal costs
(in fact, the Obama administration has usually furthered this
behavior):
– Some small U.S. diplomatic protests were made about the growing internal repression in Turkey and human rights violations there. Increasingly, the country lives under a reign of intimidation even as the Western media mostly ignores this situation. Since the United States keeps praising him, Erdogan can demoralize his opponents, who cannot hope for foreign help even as he carries on a policy of spreading anti-Americanism in Turkey.
The
political power of the Turkish armed forces — the traditional guarantor
of the republic and stability in the country — was dismantled by
Erdogan with U.S. approval. The Turkish media was subverted with only an
occasional American squeal of complaint. Now he’s destroying the
independent judicial system, the last barrier to his assault on
democratic rule. The U.S. embassy in Turkey consistently warned about
what has been happening; the White House ignored this information.
– With the Obama administration’s permission, the Turkish government violates the sanctions against Iran with ever-larger trade and major bilateral cooperation projects. Erdogan’s consistent defenses of Iran’s policies (though the two countries are at odds over Syria) have been forgiven and forgotten by the White House.– In many ways, the Turkish government has been taking the lead on setting U.S. policy toward Syria. It was Erdogan who largely determined that the official opposition exile leadership would be dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, a path followed by Obama. (I can’t prove it — but I’ll bet that Turkey’s regime promised Obama that if he would declare support for the rebels verbally and let them be armed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia then Assad would easily fall. I’d also bet that Erdogan assured Obama that if the president helped the rebels a moderate government would emerge in Syria.)
Meanwhile,
Obama has praised Erdogan unstintingly. Obama thinks Erdogan is the
very model of a “moderate Islamist”, and since Obama’s strategy is to
support such people in much of the Arab world, Erdogan has been his
guide to the region, though this has meant supporting the radical
Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Especially
ironic: Obama believed that Erdogan’s goals were essentially the same
as those of the United States, while Erdogan was in fact following a
profoundly anti-American policy designed to bring hostile Islamist
governments to power. Remember this is no longer the old
Western-oriented Turkey of previous decades, but a radical — if
concealed — Islamist regime.
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